Methodology: How Basketball Quant's Ratings Work

Team BQR

BQR is Basketball Quant's team rating: adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per 100 possessions, solved as a regularized regression over the entire season's schedule of Division I games, shrunk toward an informed prior that fades as the season is played, with a fitted home-court term and a separate tempo model. It is backtested across a decade of seasons and validated after every daily build.

Player BQR

Player BQR is a within-season 0–100 percentile of impact: an informed prior (track record, class progression or recruiting rank) blended with observed box plus-minus as evidence accumulates, discounted for minutes played. Preseason rows (PROJ BQR) are pure expectation from the projection model.

Percentiles and composite scores

Composite and radar percentiles rank every qualified player-season since 2010 (10%+ of team minutes, 10+ games); profile percentiles rank within the same season and position group; stat ranks are among rotation regulars (40%+ of minutes). The eleven composites are weighted averages of the stat percentiles that describe each skill.

PTIR and the draft models

PTIR (Predictive Transfer Impact Rating) projects next-season impact — minutes plus offensive and defensive value over replacement — learned from high-major players' following seasons. DSR, DPMR and PSFR estimate draft signal, draft slot and NBA outcomes; EDMR averages all four.

Preseason projections

Preseason projections rate every team from its roster: a player value model, a zero-sum minutes model that leaves unknown arrivals' minutes unfilled at replacement level, and a ridge team model with a program prior and coach effects, validated leave-one-season-out with calibrated 80% ranges.

Coach ratings

Coach ratings measure wins above the roster: a preseason projection built without any coaching term sets an expectation for every roster, and xWA (expected wins added) counts how far the team's adjusted offense and defense beat that expectation, in wins. W − xW is the raw outcome gap, and the recruiting model splits roster building into acquisition (rxWA) and development (Dev).

Read the full methodology at basketballquant.com/methodology, or see the ratings on every team page, the preseason rankings and the coach pages.