2027 College Basketball Preseason Projections

A 2027 preview of every NCAA Division I men's basketball team: projected adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency per 100 possessions, projected tempo, and projected win totals — built from projected rosters (returners, portal commitments and recruiting classes), program priors and coach effects.

Prediction intervals, not just point estimates

Every projection ships with a calibrated 80% prediction interval. A wide interval is information: it means the roster is genuinely less knowable — heavy freshman minutes, or a rotation leaning on players without a prior D-I season — and the model says so instead of hiding it behind a single number.

Matchup predictor

Put any two teams head to head for a win probability and a predicted margin, with the home-court term applied. The model is backtested over 2016–26: margin RMSE 10.5 points, 75.7% straight-up accuracy, fitted home advantage 3.3 points. Those numbers are published so the model can be judged on its record — it is an analytical projection, not betting advice.

Team pages · Player stats · Transfer portal · How the ratings are built